Leerink says 62% of Medicare Advantage cut points increasing in 2025

Leerink analyst Whit Mayo says the Medicare Advantage backdrop remains challenged with 62% of the 2025 cut points increasing. The firm obtained a look at the soon-to-be published cut points that drive the performance for plans’ Star ratings. 62% of the cut points moved higher, which, if plans don’t see similar movement higher in their performance, could elevate the risk that Star ratings could decline, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Leerink contends points out that many cut points moved by the maximum allowable change of five points based on guardrails. It believes Elevance Health (ELV) likely faces the least risk with Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), Humana (HUM), CVS Health (CVS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) looking most at risk, “perhaps in that order.” Leerink believes the most important point is that over 60% of the cut points increased or improved versus 2024. It estimates that nearly all plans would see risk to most large H contracts with Elevance faring perhaps the best.