JPMorgan sees solid online holiday sales growth, Amazon still top pick

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth expects solid online holiday season sales growth of 7.5% year-over-year heading toward Thanksgiving and the Cyber 5 weekend, below last year’s up 9.8%, but suggesting continued strong share gains online. Third party estimates suggest an e-commerce growth range of 7%-10% while total holiday spending, online and offline, third party estimates range from up 2.0%-3.5% year-over-year growth, below last year’s 3.9% growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says Amazon.com (AMZN) remains its best idea in internet. It believes U.S. e-commerce penetration of adjusted retail sales could nearly double from 22% today to 40%-plus long term. With a shorter holiday season, Amazon, Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are all running early promotional cycles, which should support demand & ease stress on retail networks during the holiday season,