GSK, Pifzer RSV franchises ‘delivered a blow,’ says Citi

Citi says despite Moderna’s (MRNA) 18-month respiratory syncytial virus vaccine efficacy for mResvia “being underwhelming and uncompetitive,” the Centers for Disease Control’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices “delivered a blow” to GSK‘s (GSK) Arexvy and Pfizer’s (PFE) Abrysvo with initial recommendations that narrow the addressable population among 60-74 year-olds to under 40%. This severely hampers the near-term reimbursement outlook, postponing any opinion on 50-59 year-olds for GSK despite recent FDA approval, and taking booster vaccination opportunities off the table for now, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Meanwhile, Citi believes the consensus peak sales of $2B for Moderna’s mResvia feels “hopelessly over optimistic.” It also expects 2024 and peak Arexvy/Abrysvo expectations to fall materially.