The Federal Reserve released the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members for GDP, Unemployment rate and PCE Inflation. The Fed now sees 2025 GDP at 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December, Unemployment rate at 4.4%, up from 4.3% in December, PCE inflation of 2.7%, up from 2.5% in December, and Core PCE inflation of 2.8%, up from 2.5%. For 2026, Fed projections call for GDP of 1.8% vs. 2.0% in December, Unemployment at 4.3%, unchanged from December, PCE inflation at 2.2% vs. 2.1% in December, and Core PCE unchanged at 2.2%. Fed’s Median estimates for the Longer-Run are unchanged: GDP at 1.8%, Unemployment rate at 4.2% and PCE inflation at 2.0%.
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