Dollar General cuts Q4 EPS view to $2.91-$2.96 from $3.15-$3.30, consensus $3.24

The company expects to report financial results for the fiscal 2022 fourth quarter and full year below the expectations provided on its conference call on December 1, 2022. Despite continued market share gains in sales of both consumable and non-consumable products, same-store sales for the fourth quarter increased 5.7%, compared to the company’s previous expectation of approximately 6% – 7%. The company now expects diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter in the range of $2.91 – $2.96, compared to its previous expectation in the range of $3.15 – $3.30. For the fiscal year, same-store sales increased 4.3%, compared to the company’s previous expectation of being toward the upper end of a range of 4.0% – 4.5%, and the company expects diluted earnings per share growth in the range of approximately 4.5% – 5.0%, compared to its previous expectation of approximately 7% – 8%. The company believes the lower-than-expected results are primarily attributable to lower-than-anticipated sales and higher-than-anticipated inventory damages, both of which were negatively impacted, to varying degrees, by Winter Storm Elliott during the fourth quarter. While both November and January same-store sales results were within the company’s expected guidance range for the fourth quarter at 6.7% and 6.5%, respectively, December’s same-store sales results were lower than anticipated at 4.5%, believed to be primarily as a result of the storm.