CF upgraded to Outperform on limited downside at Scotiabank

Scotiabank upgraded CF Industries to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $95, down from $100. The company is likely to miss the Street’s Q1 EBITDA estimate by 15%, consensus estimates for the full year need to come down, and near-term share catalysts "remain elusive," the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, CF’s risk/reward balance is "definitely starting to shift on several fronts," and it is better to be a "little early on this trade than miss it," contends the firm. It says the global nitrogen complex sits well below marginal cost, which is unsustainable, and that while potash hasn’t bottomed, Asian market activity is picking up pace. BMO says the stock’s valuation is well below bear mid-cycle value, which limits the downside risk.