Keefe Bruyette analyst Michael Brown downgraded Carlyle Group to Market Perform from Outperform with a $36 price target. The analyst recommends a cautious approach to the alternative managers in 2023, based on his expectation "for many of 2022’s frictions to persist into 2023." Brown narrowed his Outperform recommendations, resulting in downgrades of Apollo, Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and Carlyle Group (CG) to Market Perform. KKR (KKR) is his top pick, and he continues to recommend Outperform rated Ares Management (ARES), P10 (PX), and Patria Investments (PAX). Brown also offers a pair trade recommendation of overweight KKR, underweight Blackstone (BX). Volatile macro conditions, including interest rates and spreads, "could continue to be a source of friction, impacting the alternative asset flywheel," Brown tells investors in a research note. He says this concern will likely continue to weigh on near-term stock performance. The analyst cites the recent relative outperformance in Q4 for the three downgrades.
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