BP downgraded to Hold on buyback uncertainty at HSBC

HSBC downgraded BP to Hold from Buy with a price target of 490 GBp, down from 530 GBp. The company’s $7B annual buyback does not appear to be covered from 2025 onwards, based on HSBC’s $76.5 per barrel Brent oil price forecast, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm thinks BP’s buybacks will fall by one-third in 2026 and says they are more vulnerable than peers if Brent falls to $60 per barrel. HSBC also believes BP’s 2025 EBITDA guidance is too high and could be revised with the next medium-term update in February 2025.