Alliance Resource sees FY25 coal volume 32.75-34.75M short tons

Earlier, Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) said: “As a result of the contracting activity during the 2025 Quarter and anticipated additional domestic solicitations for deliveries in the back half of the year, we expect domestic sales to exceed our 30 million ton target this year. We continue to expect improved costs this year in both regions to help offset declines in realized prices, keeping 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margins for our coal operations similar to 2024. In the Oil & Gas Royalty business, lower crude oil pricing is expected to have a negative impact on associated royalty revenues and may also weigh on the near-term outlook for drilling activity. While seller expectations may exceed our disciplined underwriting standards making it more difficult to deploy capital, we will remain active in this market and focused on pursuing high-quality, value accretive opportunities. Looking forward, we expect that the administration’s recent announcement regarding existing critical coal-fired generation is likely to result in extended operating lives at a number of our customers’ facilities. While this policy momentum supports constructive long-term fundamentals, the initial fallout from the Liberation Day tariff announcements has created uncertainty as to inflation trends and global economic activity. We have secured solid volume commitments for 2025 and 2026; however, like this year, as our higher-priced, multi-year contracts roll off, our average coal sales price per ton is trending lower. Based on current market developments, we anticipate that 2026 average coal sales price per ton could be 4-5% below the midpoint of our 2025 guidance. We are hopeful we can maintain margins with cost savings; however, the trade policy uncertainty makes it difficult to predict what our actual costs, sales volumes, and prices will be moving forward. As we navigate these rapidly evolving market dynamics, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and disciplined approach to capital allocation, while carefully monitoring the potential impacts of trade policy uncertainty on our business.”