Alaska Air sees Q4 revenue down 2.25%-3.25%, consensus $2.54B

Alaska Air previously expected revenue to be down 1%-4% vs. last year. Sees Q4 capacity up 13%-14% vs. previous view of 11%-14%, with CASMex down 5% vs. previous view of down 3%-5%. Alaska Air now sees Q4 adjusted pre-tax margin of 1% vs. previous view of 0%-2%. In a regulatory filing, Alaska Air commented: “Our CASMex guide has improved to the better end of our prior guide, driven by our strong operational performance and cost execution. Revenue is also coming in slightly ahead of our original midpoint, driven by strong holiday bookings and improved close in demand. Fuel costs, in particular West Coast refining margins, have remained volatile throughout the quarter due to further unplanned maintenance events at California refineries, resulting in a revised economic fuel cost per gallon toward the high end of our previously guided range. As a result, we have narrowed our adjusted pre-tax margin guidance to the midpoint of our previous range.”