Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is down slightly, but it’s not the share price that matters most this month — it’s what the company is trying to prove. The EV maker is preparing to launch its first real driverless taxi service in Austin. The rollout will start small, but the goal is enormous: millions of Teslas, fully autonomous, operating as robotaxis.
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This isn’t just another feature upgrade. It’s Tesla’s long-term bet on becoming more than a car company. However, the issue is that U.S. regulations haven’t caught up — and that disconnect could limit how far and how fast Tesla can scale.
This Isn’t Just About One City
The Austin launch is meant to be the spark. Elon Musk has made it clear: the vision is for any relatively new Tesla to double as a robotaxi. That means millions of vehicles, across dozens of states, operating autonomously. Tesla isn’t just building a service. It’s building a platform.
But you can’t just flip a switch and let robots loose on public roads. Each state has its own rules, testing programs, and approval processes for autonomous vehicles. Some are ahead. Others are stuck in neutral. And at the federal level, there’s still no unified framework. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy says he wants a national standard — but wanting one and passing one are very different things.
The Economic Stakes for Tesla Are Enormous
If Tesla can pull this off, it changes the math completely. It stops being a company that sells cars, and becomes one that sells transportation. That’s recurring revenue. That’s margins. That’s software-driven scale.
Right now, Tesla’s gross margin hovers around 17–20%. With robotaxis and autonomy, that could head sharply higher. Services are sticky. Robotaxi rides cost Tesla almost nothing once the vehicle’s deployed. But until policy allows them to operate widely, all of that upside is theoretical.
Why Tesla’s Stock Hinges on More Than Just Cars
Tesla stock is down about 15% year-to-date, but it’s still up over 90% in the past 12 months. Investors have been buying the promise of autonomy — not just EV sales. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, one of the most influential Tesla bulls, values the company at $410 per share. Only a small slice of that comes from the car business. The rest is AI, robotics, and self-driving.
But here’s the catch: if regulators stall robotaxi adoption, much of that future value stays locked up. The market is forward-looking, but it still needs progress to stay convinced.
When Innovation Speeds Up, Regulation Slams the Brakes
Tesla’s not the only one facing this tension. As AI gets embedded in more parts of our lives, regulation has to balance innovation with safety. And with robotaxis, the stakes are higher than a chatbot. These are two-ton machines making life-and-death decisions in real-time traffic.
Jonas even compares the rise of autonomous AI to nuclear proliferation — powerful, fast-moving, and capable of reshaping global structures. Whether that’s hyperbole or foresight, it signals how seriously some analysts are taking this shift.
Tesla’s Real Test Starts Now
The June robotaxi launch will be key. It’s a test of the tech, sure. But it’s also a test of Tesla’s ability to scale a new business model inside a regulatory maze. A few cars in Austin might not move the financials. But they could decide whether Tesla’s next leg of growth is near — or stuck in political gridlock.
For now, the stock reflects that uncertainty. There’s excitement. But there’s hesitation too. Because no matter how good the AI is, it can’t rewrite laws.
Is Tesla a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
According to TipRanks data, Tesla currently holds a Hold rating based on 37 Wall Street analyst reviews over the past three months. Out of those, 16 analysts rate the stock a Buy, 10 say Hold, and 11 recommend Sell — reflecting a fairly split view.
The average 12-month TSLA price target is $282.70, which implies a 17.5% downside from the current price of around $342.69.
