Tesla’s (TSLA) robo-taxi debut was supposed to be a moonshot. Instead, the stock barely budged—up just 0.5% last week—despite showing real cars, without drivers, shuttling passengers around Austin. For bulls, that was proof of progress. For bears, it looked more like a limited beta test. Either way, the launch didn’t move the needle. And now the hype is fading, and investors are turning to the 3 real catalysts that could turbocharge Tesla stock and send price predictions into overdrive.
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Tesla’s Delivery Day Looms, and It’s Not Looking Pretty
First up are deliveries. Wednesday’s second-quarter delivery report could jolt the stock. Wall Street is expecting 386,000 units, down 13% year over year. But fresh whispers peg the real number closer to 355,000, down a brutal 20%. That’s a far cry from the 500,000 some analysts forecast at the start of the year. Tesla’s momentum problem is real. And with delivery numbers already dragging in Q1, a miss here could test investor patience—fast.
Tesla’s Earnings Are Next, and Estimates Keep Shrinking
The next catalyst is Tesla’s earnings. Earnings follow deliveries by a few weeks, but expectations are lower than ever. Analysts now forecast just $0.44 in Q2 EPS, down from $0.52 last year, and miles below the $0.85 estimate earlier this year. If Tesla misses again, investors will want more than robo-taxis and vague promises. They’ll want clarity. Real results. And a roadmap out of the current slowdown.
The Third Catalyst Is Tesla’s Mystery Model
Lastly, there’s one swing factor that could reignite Tesla stock: the next model. Execs say it’s coming this year, but there’s still no clarity on what it actually is. Whether it’s a lower-cost EV or a refreshed Model 3, the market wants something new, and soon. Without a headline-grabbing product reveal, the story risks losing steam.
Is Tesla a Buy Today?
Right now, Wall Street’s stance on Tesla is… undecided. Out of 35 analysts, just 14 rate it a Buy, while 12 say Hold and nine say Sell. That’s a split jury, and it earns Tesla an overall analyst consensus rating of Hold.
The average 12-month TSLA price target sits at $291.31, which actually marks a 10% downside from the current share price of $323.63.
So is Tesla a buy today? According to the street: not quite. It’s more of a “wait and see” story, one that hinges on how Tesla executes over the next few months, especially across its three key catalysts.
