Big-box retailer Target (TGT) is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on August 19. TGT stock rose about 1% on Thursday to close at $155.51. The options market is pricing in a 7.08% move in either direction in reaction to Q2 FY26 earnings.
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Importantly, an options-implied move measures the expected magnitude of the stock’s move after earnings, not whether it will rise or fall.
Target stock has rallied 59% year-to-date, as investors are impressed with the improvement in the company’s financials, driven by its turnaround efforts.
| Metric | Value / Calculation |
| Current Stock Price | $155.51 |
| Earnings Date | August 19, 2026 |
| Implied Move (+/- %) | ±7.08% |
| Implied Dollar Swing | ±$11.01 |
| Implied Bullish Target | $166.52 |
| Implied Bearish Floor | $144.50 |
Recent Earnings Moves
For context, Target’s last four post-earnings moves averaged 4.93% in absolute terms. The 7.08% implied move is higher than this average. Meanwhile, the past reactions (in absolute terms) ranged from 2.77% to 6.74%. Note that the past movements provide a context rather than a prediction.
What Could Drive TGT Stock?
Given the solid year-to-date rally, expectations are high for Target to demonstrate continued improvement in its sales and profitability. Any slowdown in the growth rate or the retailer missing the Street’s expectations could drive the stock down.
Investors will also be closely watching the company’s guidance. In May 2026, the company delivered better-than-expected first-quarter results and raised its full-year sales outlook.
Margins will also be monitored as the company focuses on a higher-margin merchandise mix.
Expectations from Target’s Q2 Earnings
Ahead of Q2 FY26 earnings, Bank of America analyst Chris Nardone increased his price target on Target stock to $124 from $110 and reiterated a Sell rating. The 4-star analyst explained that despite notable improvement in sales under the new leadership, he remains cautious about the pace of EPS revisions and the sustainability of solid comparable sales trends.
Nardone increased his Q2 FY26 and full-year EPS estimates by 3% to $2.36 and $8.84, respectively, to reflect better sales as “broader consumer spend has remained resilient.” The analyst expects Target to report comparable sales growth of 2.5% for Q2 FY26 and 2% for the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, Wolfe Research analyst Spencer Hanus increased his price target on TGT stock to $169 from $162 and reiterated a Buy rating. The analyst raised his Q2 FY26 same-store sales growth estimate to 3%, citing acceleration in Target’s turnaround efforts. Hanus expects Target’s Q2 FY26 gross margin to beat expectations. While the catalysts are encouraging, the analyst noted that expectations are high heading into Q2 earnings. “If there is positioning-driven weakness on the print, we see an opportunity to add, as investors can play for 2H comp upside and continued positive earnings revisions,” concluded Hanus.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects Target to report EPS of $2.32 for Q2 FY26, reflecting 13.2% year-over-year growth. Net sales are expected to rise 3.6% to $26.12 billion.
Is TGT Stock a Good Buy Now?
Heading into Q2 FY26 earnings, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Target stock, with 12 Buys, 15 Holds, and two Sells. The average TGT stock price target of $143.15 indicates about 8% downside risk.
