Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday, August 11. Traders are watching SMCI stock closely because the options market is pricing in a sharp reaction after the release. According to recent data, the options market is pricing in a move of about 13.76% in either direction following the results. That suggests traders are bracing for another volatile earnings reaction.
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The current implied move is smaller than SMCI’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of about 16.9% over the past four quarters.
For context, Super Micro designs AI servers and data center systems used by cloud providers and enterprise customers. SMCI stock has gained 13% over the past five days and 9% year to date. The stock inched higher in pre-market trading on Tuesday.
What Could Drive the Stock Post-Earnings?
Wall Street expects Super Micro to report Q4 revenue of $11.60 billion, up 101.7% from $5.75 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share are projected to increase to $0.92 from $0.41 in the same quarter last year.
Investors will also watch whether the company can continue converting its record $60 billion backlog into revenue. Gross margins will remain another area of focus after Super Micro recently said they could improve to 15% to 17% because of a more favorable mix of AI servers.
The company also announced a new partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Spectro Cloud to launch AMD Instinct Coder, an enterprise AI coding platform built on Super Micro’s systems. Investors may look for updates on how the partnership could support future AI server demand.
Top Analyst’s Take on SMCI Stock
Five-star-rated analyst Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho Securities reiterated a Buy rating on SMCI stock. He reduced his price target on the stock to $34 from $44. He said the revenue shortfall reflects potential component and memory shortages, along with delays in shell construction. Notably, the company expects June-quarter revenue to come in near the low end of its prior guidance range of $11.0 billion to $12.5 billion.
In addition, Rakesh said the new orders provide a strong outlook for fiscal 2027. However, he warned that intense competition could put pressure on SMCI’s market share and financing pipeline.
Is SMCI a Good Stock to Buy?
According to TipRanks, SMCI stock has received a Hold consensus rating, with three Buys, eight Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. The average price target for Super Micro Computer is $38.40, suggesting an upside of 22.06% from the current level.
