SpaceX (SPCX) traded higher on Thursday even as it faced one of the largest post‑IPO lock-up expirations in recent market history. More than 911.5 million insider shares, worth roughly $116 billion, became eligible for trading. Many investors expected a sharp drop as this huge wave of supply hit the market. Instead, SPCX jumped more than 6%, climbing back toward $115 after a post‑earnings selloff on Wednesday.
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High conviction on SPCX? Try Tradr's SPCM or SPCGThe rebound surprised traders who were bracing for immediate pressure from insiders finally able to sell. But many early backers and long‑time employees chose to hold their stakes, still sitting on large paper gains even though the stock trades well below the $135 IPO price from June.
Why The Lock-up Expiration Did Not Trigger a Sell-Off
Normally, a surge of new shares this large would crush a stock. But several factors helped cushion the impact. The company did not release all insider shares at once. Instead of a normal 180‑day lock-up that ends on a single day, SpaceX uses a staggered plan where new blocks of shares open slowly over time. This helped avoid panic selling today as the market was not hit with a huge wave of insider shares all at once.
Importantly, Elon Musk’s huge 42% stake, about 6.4 billion shares, remains locked until mid‑2027.
Further, SpaceX’s float expansion means its weight in major indexes like the Nasdaq‑100 (NDX) is set to rise from around 1% to more than 3.5%. Index funds and large managers likely bought newly freed‑up shares today to match the index.
Together, these factors helped SpaceX avoid the typical “lock-up dump” and gave the stock room to recover from the prior day’s selloff, even with a massive supply hitting the market.
What Is SPCX’s Stock Price Target?
Turning to Wall Street, SPCX stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 23 Buys, six Holds, and two Sells assigned since its IPO. The average price target for SpaceX is $232.11, implying an upside of 101.98% from the current price.
