The S&P 500 (SPX) opened Monday’s trading session in positive territory after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 U.S. GDP growth estimate to 1.9%, up from its prior estimate of 1.8% in April. The IMF also hiked its 2026 U.S. GDP growth estimate to 2.0% from 1.7%.
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The U.S. wasn’t the only country to receive an upgrade. The IMF now expects 3.0% global growth, up from 2.8%, driven by lower-than-expected tariffs, fiscal expansion, and improving financial conditions. 2026 global growth is forecast at 3.1%, up from 3.0%.
IMF Hikes GDP Estimates
Across the globe, China received the largest GDP upgrade. The Fund now expects China’s GDP to grow by 4.8% in 2025, up from 4.0%. A major factor supporting this growth is lower tariffs from the U.S. as the two sides work to strike a trade deal. The U.S. and China reached preliminary trade agreements in May and June and began a second day of talks in Stockholm today.
Emerging market and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.0% in 2025, up from 3.9%.
Track U.S. GDP with TipRanks’ Economic Indicators Dashboard.
