Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone shipments from India jumped in March, just before the U.S. announced new tariffs in April, according to Counterpoint Research. Indeed, smartphone makers across the board rushed to bring in more inventory to avoid higher costs, causing U.S. smartphone shipments to rise by 30% year-over-year that month. As a result, phone shipments from India, China, and Vietnam also increased, which led to a 51% year-over-year rise in U.S. smartphone stock levels for March. Unsurprisingly, the new tariffs shifted production away from China.
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In Q1 2025, India-made phones accounted for 26% of shipments to the U.S., up from 16% a year earlier. Apple, Samsung (SSNLF), and Motorola all increased shipments from India. Interestingly, Motorola tripled its shipments from India, while Samsung relied more on India for its Galaxy A16 model. This caused China’s share to drop from 56% to 52%, while Vietnam’s fell from 27% to 21%. In addition, Apple’s sell-in (shipments from the manufacturer to retailers) rose 42% year-over-year in March, as the company quickly shipped products to avoid the tariffs.
Meanwhile, Samsung’s March sell-in rose just 4% since it was less affected by the tariffs. This was because it depends less on China, though it now faces its own tariff risk. In fact, unlike Apple, Samsung’s different product release schedule may limit its ability to speed up shipments. It is also worth noting that over the weekend, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods falling from 145% to 30%, while China’s will drop from 125% to 10%. Samsung also hopes that separate U.S.-Vietnam talks and a temporary pause on a 46% tariff will lead to a longer-term trade deal.
Is Apple a Buy or Sell Right Now?
Overall, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AAPL stock based on 17 Buys, eight Holds, and four Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average AAPL price target of $228.65 per share implies 8.5% upside potential.
