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UnitedHealth’s Earnings Outlook: Balancing Potential Upside with Uncertainty

UnitedHealth’s Earnings Outlook: Balancing Potential Upside with Uncertainty

Analyst Kevin Fischbeck of Bank of America Securities reiterated a Hold rating on UnitedHealth, boosting the price target to $390.00.

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Kevin Fischbeck has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors impacting UnitedHealth’s future earnings potential. The company’s guidance for 2026 earnings is significantly lower than what investors anticipated a year ago, and while management has made efforts to reset expectations and focus operationally, uncertainties remain. A major concern is the potential for another coding adjustment in 2027, which could impact earnings, particularly in the Medicare Advantage and OptumHealth segments.
Fischbeck’s analysis suggests that while there is significant upside potential if these adjustments do not become a headwind, the uncertainty surrounding them warrants a cautious approach. The price objective has been increased based on higher comparative multiples, but the overall outlook remains neutral until more clarity is obtained. The scenario analysis indicates varying potential returns depending on how different business segments perform and whether the coding adjustment occurs, leading to the Hold recommendation.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 136 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of UNH in relation to earlier this year.

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