William Blair analyst Myles Minter has reiterated their neutral stance on MRNA stock, giving a Hold rating today.
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Myles Minter has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that reflect both the challenges and potential opportunities facing Moderna. The company has been effective in implementing cost-cutting measures, which have exceeded initial estimates, contributing to a positive market reaction. However, despite these efforts, Moderna’s revenue needs to significantly increase by 2028 to meet breakeven guidance without undergoing drastic organizational changes. This growth is contingent upon successful new product launches, which have shown mixed results, including underperformance in certain areas and setbacks in clinical trials.
Minter also highlights the strategic focus on Moderna’s oncology assets as a promising avenue, with potential Phase III data in melanoma expected by 2026 or 2027. This could expedite approval processes and improve the company’s financial outlook. Nevertheless, the current market conditions, particularly the declining COVID-19 vaccine market, present uncertainties. The upcoming analyst day in November is anticipated to provide further clarity on Moderna’s breakeven strategy, but until then, Minter maintains a cautious stance with a Hold rating, emphasizing that Moderna remains a “show-me” story.