Match Group’s Mixed Performance: Improved Margins and Tinder’s Turnaround Amid Revenue Challenges

Analyst Nathan Feather from Morgan Stanley reiterated a Hold rating on Match Group and keeping the price target at $34.00.

Nathan Feather’s rating is based on several factors impacting Match Group’s performance. While Tinder is making strides in its turnaround efforts, the company faces a significant revenue challenge anticipated for fiscal year 2026. Despite this, Match Group’s third and fourth-quarter margins have outperformed expectations, which has helped mitigate the downside in free cash flow. This positive margin performance, coupled with a clearer path for Tinder’s growth, suggests the potential for a stock re-rating in the first half of 2026.
However, the slower revenue growth is counterbalanced by improved margins as the adoption of direct payments increases. The third quarter saw a 2% year-over-year revenue growth, aligning with expectations, but the fourth-quarter guidance of 1%-2% fell short due to external factors like Azar’s block in Turkey. Despite a decline in monthly active users, Tinder’s product improvements show promise. The company’s enhanced profitability and direct payment benefits provide Match Group with the flexibility to invest in Tinder’s turnaround and other brand growth while maintaining strong free cash flow. Consequently, Nathan Feather maintains a Hold rating until more clarity on these developments emerges.

In another report released today, Bank of America Securities also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $38.00 price target.