Analyst Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Marathon Petroleum, retaining the price target of $195.00.
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Jason Gabelman has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors including Marathon Petroleum’s expectation of a return to normal refining capture levels in the fourth quarter of 2025. Despite a weak third quarter attributed to temporary margin capture challenges, the company anticipates a more typical seasonal performance going forward. Additionally, Marathon Petroleum’s history of strong financial and operational results suggests that investors might overlook the recent earnings miss.
Another reason for the Buy rating is the company’s robust free cash flow yield, which is projected to be the strongest among large-cap refiners in 2026. This is supported by distributions from both the parent company and MPLX, as well as growing structural free cash flow driven by their Midstream operations. Furthermore, while capital expenditures and turnaround expenses are expected to exceed guidance for the current year, they are projected to decrease in 2026, indicating potential for improved financial performance.
In another report released yesterday, Raymond James also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $200.00 price target.