Gordon Johnson, an analyst from GLJ Research, maintained the Sell rating on Enphase Energy. The associated price target was raised to $23.49.
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Gordon Johnson has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors related to Enphase Energy’s future market outlook and revenue projections. He notes that the company’s guidance for third-quarter revenue is lower than market consensus, which suggests that expectations for demand driven by safe-harbor provisions may not materialize as hoped. Additionally, Johnson expresses skepticism about the optimistic growth projections for third-party owned (TPO) solar installations in 2026, suggesting that consensus estimates are overly optimistic.
Johnson further highlights concerns regarding the impact of the 25D tax credit phaseout on the U.S. residential solar market. He argues that historical precedent shows significant declines in demand when solar incentives are reduced, contrary to the company’s more optimistic projections. Based on his analysis, Johnson anticipates a much steeper decline in U.S. residential solar demand than the consensus, leading him to maintain a bearish outlook on Enphase Energy’s stock with a price target significantly below the current market price.