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American Express: Strong Growth and Earnings Outlook Balanced by Valuation Concerns and Rising Expenses

American Express: Strong Growth and Earnings Outlook Balanced by Valuation Concerns and Rising Expenses

In a report released today, Jeffrey Adelson from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on American Express, with a price target of $362.00.

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Jeffrey Adelson’s rating is based on a combination of factors that reflect both positive and cautious outlooks for American Express. The company has shown a strong rebound in growth, supported by consumer resilience and a recovery in travel and entertainment spending. This has led to an acceleration in card spend growth and an increase in revenue and earnings per share guidance for 2025. However, despite these positive developments, Adelson maintains a Hold rating due to the stock’s current valuation, which is already trading at over 20 times the next twelve months’ price-to-earnings ratio.
While there are upward revisions in earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027, driven by broad-based revenue increases and outperforming credit metrics, there are also concerns about rising expenses. The refresh-related costs, particularly in Cardmember Services, are expected to increase, which could offset some of the revenue gains. Additionally, the forecasted slowdown in consumer spending and a challenging holiday season comparison contribute to the cautious stance. These factors combined suggest that while American Express is performing well, the potential for significant re-rating of the stock is limited at this time.

According to TipRanks, Adelson is an analyst with an average return of -11.1% and a 35.44% success rate. Adelson covers the Financial sector, focusing on stocks such as Synchrony Financial, American Express, and Rocket Companies.

In another report released today, Barclays also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $355.00 price target.

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