Israelis and Gazans alike are celebrating today’s news about President Trump’s success in advancing his peace plan. Israel and Hamas are expected to sign an agreement today to release all the Israeli hostages Hamas has been holding in Gaza for two painful years. Trump announced the breakthrough late on Wednesday, marking a first step toward peace as part of his goals to end the war, increase humanitarian aid and facilitate a prisoner exchange.
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The first phase of the deal is expected to see all 48 remaining hostages released from Gaza within 72 hours of the deal’s approval by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet. For context, 250 people were kidnapped from Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas and other Palestinian factions also killed around 1,200 people in a brutal attack on Israeli towns and a nearby music festival. On Israel’s side, the deal has them releasing nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and increasing aid into Gaza, as well as withdrawing its troops from the front lines to an as yet-undefined area in Gaza.
Revelers celebrate Trump and his deal in “Hostage Square” in Tel Aviv, today.
Photo Credit: Gilan Miller-Gertz
The overall markets have not shown any clear reaction yet to the unfolding peace deal, but oil and shipping are already feeling the effects of the developments.
Oil Drops Slightly as Gaza Situation Shapes Up
Oil prices fell slightly on the news, as an improved geopolitical picture will reduce instability in the Middle East. More than half of the world’s oil reserves are found in the Middle East, so concerns about supplies from the region had led to higher prices. Now, the promise of a less volatile region has induced a minor decrease in oil futures.
Currently, WTI Crude Oil Futures are down by 0.37%, and Brent Crude Futures are down 0.30%.
Maersk Declines on Shipping Fears
Shipping giant A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (AMKBY) is down by 2.20% on the Nasdaq Copenhagen stock exchange today, marking a three-month low for the integrated transport and logistics company. Rates of freight had been pumped up by the disturbances in the Middle East, as shippers have been avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes since 2023. That’s because Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi forces, in support of the Gazans, have been attacking commercial ships.
Now, with renewed hopes for peace in the Middle East, there is anticipation that the Houthis will stop the violence toward ships. It follows that ships will be able to return to the conventional Middle Eastern routes of the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and freight will flow more freely, eliminating the shipping capacity crunch. Thus, investors are growing bearish on AMKBY stock.
Investors are understandably wishful for an end to Middle East violence and an improved shipping situation. Yet it’s important to note the comments of Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc. In May 2025, he said that returning transit to the Red Sea would be “irresponsible” due to uncertainty about safety. Earlier, he had said that Maersk would return only when the “safety of seafarers, vessels, and cargo was guaranteed,” according to the company’s website. Therefore, a sea change to the way Maersk operates will likely wait until a full cessation of hostilities on the part of the Houthis.