Nvidia Stock Record-Breaking Rally Hits Pause as China Sales Stay Shut Despite Big Tech’s AI Spend

Nvidia’s record rally stalled as China export curbs offset booming AI demand from U.S. tech giants.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) record-breaking rally hit a pause on Thursday as the stock pulled back slightly after topping a $5 trillion market valuation. The AI chip leader has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom, but traders are now turning cautious as U.S.-China tensions once again cloud the outlook.

While tech giants are ramping up AI spending, geopolitical risks remain the one factor Nvidia can’t control, and they’re starting to weigh on sentiment.

China Curbs Erase Near-Term Revenue

Nvidia signals zero revenue from China this quarter, implying a $2 billion to $5 billion hit to potential sales. This hole lingered after President Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping produced no change on Blackwell chip exports, according to reports that said the topic was not discussed.

Investors had hoped for a policy breakthrough to reopen one of Nvidia’s biggest markets. Instead, Chinese authorities continue to discourage the use of Nvidia’s AI processors, keeping a key channel offline and capping upside in the near term.

U.S. Cloud Giants Lift AI Budgets

Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) all told investors they will raise capital spending, largely for AI data centers. That keeps the order pipeline healthy for accelerators, networking, and memory tied to training and inference build-outs.

For Nvidia, sustained capex from hyperscalers helps offset China. It supports a path for continued data-center growth as new model training ramps and inference deployment widens across enterprise workloads.

The Tape Prices Policy Risk and Rotates

After a market cap that briefly topped $5 trillion, a small step back is natural while traders balance blockbuster demand with export uncertainty. Short-term positioning had turned crowded after a five-day, 14% climb, so even modest headlines can trigger cooling.

Peers moved mixed in premarket action. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slipped about 0.8%, while Broadcom edged up roughly 0.3%. This split reflects a market sorting through who benefits most from U.S. capex and who is most exposed to China.

What Could Push Shares Higher Next

Two levers matter most in the weeks ahead. First, clearer language from Washington on export rules would reduce a key overhang. Second, firmer purchase signals from cloud customers into year-end would reinforce revenue visibility, especially if delivery windows for next-gen systems tighten.

Until then, the story is a tug-of-war. Structural AI demand remains powerful, but policy friction in China keeps a lid on the multiple. If spending plans translate into stronger shipment cadence and China risk stabilizes, the trend can resume higher.

Is Nvidia a Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Nvidia continues to hold the Street’s endorsement with a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average NVDA price target is $231.34, implying an 11.74% upside from the current price.

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