Nvidia (NVDA) may still have plenty of room to run, according to Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes. Despite concerns that the chipmaker’s growth will slow after a nearly 40% rally this year, Reitzes said that “deceleration fears are overblown.”
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On Monday, Reitzes raised his price target on Nvidia stock to $275 from $240, suggesting about 47% upside from current levels near $185. That places his target among the highest on Wall Street, second only to Elazar Advisors’ $389.73 estimate.
Reitzes argued that Nvidia remains central to the artificial intelligence boom, with growing demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) and continued expansion across global data centers.
Analyst Mentions 3 Key Flaws in Nvidia’s Bear Case
The analyst highlighted three key flaws in the bear case. First, demand for Nvidia’s chips continues to outpace supply as AI technology powers more “autonomous everything” devices. Second, the competitive pressure among Big Tech firms is forcing record levels of AI infrastructure spending.
OpenAI’s plan to invest over $1 trillion in computing infrastructure has triggered a global race among hyperscalers. Reitzes said that could “catalyze rapid AI spending by an even broader cohort,” expanding the total addressable market for AI compute and networking to over $2 trillion by 2030.
Adding to this, Nvidia’s collaboration with OpenAI and its $100 billion investment in the company are helping secure long-term market share. Reitzes said the partnership “eased [ASIC] concerns quite a bit,” referring to the growing competition from application-specific integrated circuits.
AI Infrastructure Growth Boosts Nvidia’s Long-Term Revenue Outlook
Reitzes expects Nvidia to capture over 40% of the AI infrastructure market, potentially worth $800 billion by 2030. He also projects that more than 20 gigawatts of new AI workload demand could emerge by 2028, driving over $400 billion in data-center revenue that year. Upgrades to existing systems could lift that figure to $500 billion.
As a result, Melius Research raised its estimate for Nvidia’s annual data-center growth rate to 44% through 2028, up from 40%, and well above the Wall Street consensus of 37%. For 2027, Reitzes now sees growth of 30%, up from 22%, “with an upside bias through the end of the decade.”
Nvidia Aims for Expansion into China amid Policy Shifts
Another catalyst could come from a potential reopening of the Chinese market. Reitzes believes Nvidia could sell its H20 and Blackwell-based chips in China “within the next year or two.”
According to his report, demand for Nvidia’s products in China remains strong despite the country’s focus on developing domestic alternatives. “We are optimistic this will happen as U.S. and China governments are set to meet in October and the Nvidia issue could be on the table,” Reitzes wrote.
If sales to China resume, Nvidia could add over $10 billion in quarterly demand next year. That would represent about 15% upside to current earnings estimates of $6.41 per share, giving the company an even stronger path for growth.
To sum up, even though Nvidia’s stock has slowed in recent months, analysts still see strong long-term potential. The company’s mix of powerful hardware, steady investment strategy, and well-integrated software gives it a clear edge in building the next generation of AI infrastructure.
Is Nvidia a Good Stock to Buy Now?
Nvidia carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 39 Wall Street analysts surveyed over the past three months. Among them, 36 recommend a Buy, two rate it a Hold, and only one suggests a Sell.
The average 12-month price target for Nvidia stands at $217.75, implying about 17.68% upside from its current trading price.
