“Nvidia has some amazing new products… but spending needs to grow rapidly,” said Melius Research’s Ben Reitzes in a note that pretty much sums up the stakes ahead of earnings. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya put it bluntly: $15 to $20 billion in annual sales to China has “evaporated.” That’s a double-shot of pressure on Nvidia (NVDA) heading into its May 28 results — and the analysts are watching hyperscaler capex like hawks.
AI Gold Rush Spurs Demand for Nvidia Chips
Despite a 15% stock slide this year, analysts are still betting on the chipmaker’s long game. Reitzes said the AI race has become “existential” for the big dogs—Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL)—as they build rival universal assistants like Copilot and MetaAI. And even if those giants churn out custom silicon, he insists Nvidia’s chips remain essential to scale fast.
He also highlighted Nvidia’s new GB300 and Vera Rubin products as key growth drivers that could power through “tough regulations.”
China Tariffs Cast a Long Shadow
But not everything is rosy. Arya warned that U.S. restrictions are slicing off a huge chunk of Nvidia’s data center business. He estimated that the long-term total addressable market has shrunk by 20%, and noted that hyperscaler investment will now have to do the heavy lifting.
He’s still holding a Buy rating, with the next inflection point set for May 28, when Nvidia is forecast to report $43.12 billion in revenue and 89 cents in EPS.
Furthermore, according to BofA’s Savita Subramanian, hyperscalers aren’t tapping the brakes anytime soon. She expects capital expenditure from the Big Tech giants to surge 35% year over year in 2025 — blowing past the broader market. That kind of spend is music to Nvidia’s ears.
If Nvidia can hitch its wagon to that AI gold rush, its next-gen Blackwell chips might be enough to offset the $15–$20 billion hole left by China’s evaporated demand. But with earnings around the corner, that theory is headed straight for the hot seat. This quarter isn’t just a numbers check — it’s a credibility test.
Is NVIDIA a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Despite the China headwinds and earnings questions, analysts are standing firmly in Nvidia’s corner. The stock holds a Strong Buy rating from 40 Wall Street analysts, with 34 calling it a Buy, five recommending Hold, and just one urging Sell.
The average 12-month NVDA price target sits at $164.23 — that’s a 44% upside from current levels. The highest forecast hits $200, while the lowest dips to $100. That spread reflects the debate around export restrictions and AI momentum, but the consensus is still firmly bullish.
