The 30-year mortgage rate ended four consecutive weeks of declines and rose to 6.22%, according to Freddie Mac. The higher rate comes after last week’s rate of 6.17% marked the lowest level since October 2024. For context, the average rate has remained above 6% since February 2023, despite two interest rate cuts this year.
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Fannie Mae expects the 30-year mortgage rate to fall to 5.9% by the end of 2026, although both the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders expect the rate to average at least 6% next year.
Resilient 10-Year Yield Keeps Mortgage Rates Elevated
The 30-year mortgage rate follows the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the federal funds rate, with yields remaining high this year amid economic uncertainty and persistent inflation. The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield has ranged between 2% and 3% in recent years.
“In order for [30-year mortgage] rates to get to 5.5%, then the 10-year bond yield would have to go to 3.5% if the spread is still 2%,” William Raveis Mortgage vice president Melissa Cohn told CNBC.
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