Moderna Accelerates COVID-19 Vaccine Supply to COVAX

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has amended its existing contract with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, to speed up the supply of 20 million doses to COVAX by December 31, 2021. These vaccines were previously agreed to be delivered in the first quarter of 2022. Notably, a total of 54 million doses have been made available to COVAX in 2021. 

With the acceleration of doses in 2021, Moderna now expects to supply up to 96.5 million doses in the first quarter of 2022 and an additional 116.5 million doses in the second quarter of 2022. Notably, as per the prior agreement, Gavi will have the option to procure 233 million additional doses in 2022. 

Moderna also inked a new supply agreement with Gavi for the delivery of an additional 20 million doses in the second quarter of 2022. This brings the total number of doses to 136.5 million in the second quarter of 2022. Gavi also has the option to purchase an additional 30 million doses in the second quarter of 2022 and an additional 100 million doses in the third quarter of 2022.  

Markedly, in total, these two agreements authorize Gavi to purchase up to 650 million doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 and 2022. 

The agreements cover the 92 Gavi COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) low- and middle-income countries. 

CEO Comments 

CEO of Moderna, Stephane Bancel, said, “I would like to thank our partners at Gavi and COVAX for their work and collaboration to reach this agreement. This is another important milestone as we work to ensure that people around the world have access to our COVID-19 vaccine as quickly as possible…We remain committed to implementing a comprehensive strategy to ensure that low-income countries get access to our vaccine as we seek to help end the pandemic around the world.” 

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Other Agreements 

Recently, Moderna entered into an agreement that allows European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA) countries to donate doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, which were purchased for delivery in 2021. This initiative, which was led by France, Sweden, and Norway is anticipated to donate more than 70 million doses of the vaccine in 2021, including an initial donation of 15 million doses by France and 40 million doses by Germany. (See Moderna stock charts on TipRanks) 

Wall Street’s Take 

Recently, Cowen & Co. analyst Tyler Van Buren initiated coverage of Moderna with a Hold rating and a price target of $250 (2.75% downside potential).  

Buren expects strong COVID booster shot demand in the coming period and believes Moderna to be well-positioned to cater to emerging variants of concern. However, the analyst’s discounted cash flow analysis reflects a valuation similar to current levels. 

Overall, the stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 6 Buys, 5 Holds, and 3 Sells. The average Moderna price target of $294.46 implies 14.55% upside potential from current levels. Shares have gained 23.9% over the past six months. 

Bloggers Weigh In 

TipRanks data shows that financial blogger opinions are 77% Bullish on MRNA, compared to a sector average of 70%.

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