Tesla’s (TSLA) China lead is slipping — and XPeng (XPEV) might be the one overtaking it. With 313% delivery growth and a stock up 57% this year, XPeng is no longer the underdog. It’s scaling fast, cutting prices aggressively, and expanding into high-end features and autonomy — the very turf Tesla once owned.
XPeng Leads the Pack with Triple-Digit Growth
XPeng delivered 35,045 cars in April, up 273% year-over-year, and 129,053 vehicles year-to-date — a staggering 313% increase. The stock is now up 57% in 2025, with investors betting this momentum sticks.
Li Auto (LI) wasn’t far behind, delivering 33,939 vehicles, up 32%. NIO (NIO) reported 23,900 units, a 53% gain. Together, the three delivered 321,850 EVs so far this year, marking a 76% increase from 2024.
Why Tesla Should Be Watching its Rearview
In contrast, Tesla sold about 135,000 vehicles in China in Q1 — a 2% bump year-over-year. That’s solid, but nowhere near the pace of the local upstarts. Now that XPeng and others are scaling up and expanding into premium features and autonomy, Tesla’s edge in China looks thinner.
From a market-share perspective, Tesla risks losing ground as Chinese buyers increasingly choose local brands — especially when those brands offer better incentives, fresher models, and improved tech tailored to domestic tastes.
Surging Growth Pressures Margins and Tesla’s Outlook
This surge in Chinese EV deliveries means more price competition, which can be brutal for margins. XPeng has aggressively cut prices to win market share — a move that pressures Tesla to follow suit. That’s good for consumers but tough on profit.
From a financial modeling standpoint, Tesla’s gross margins have already taken a hit globally. Sustained price pressure in China — its second-largest market — could force analysts to lower future earnings forecasts.
At the macro level, the Chinese EV market is expanding fast, which lifts the whole sector. But in a maturing market, market share matters more than total demand. Tesla doesn’t just need growth — it needs outperformance to justify its valuation.
Is XPEV Stock a Good Buy?
Wall Street sees room for more upside — but it’s not unanimous. According to TipRanks, XPeng holds a “Moderate Buy” rating based on 12 analyst reviews. Of those, six call it a Buy, five recommend holding, and one says sell.
The average 12-month XPEV price target sits at $24.13, which implies a 29% upside from its last close of $18.67. The high-end forecast is $32, while the lowest is $14.60 — a wide spread that reflects both the excitement and risk around XPeng’s aggressive expansion.
The bullish case is simple: deliveries are exploding, market share is growing, and the stock’s already up 57% this year. If XPeng keeps up this pace without blowing a hole in margins, analysts may have to revise those targets even higher.
Is Tesla a Buy or Sell?
While XPeng’s stock takes off, Tesla’s outlook is looking… neutral. Based on 37 analyst ratings, Tesla currently holds a “Hold” consensus. That breakdown includes 16 Buys, 10 Holds, and 11 Sells — a split that reflects growing concern over Tesla’s growth trajectory and competitive pressure, particularly in China.
The average 12-month TSLA price target is just $283.69, barely 0.5% above its current price of $282.16. That suggests analysts don’t see much near-term upside. The range is wide, too — from a low of $115 to a high of $450 — signaling uncertainty on where Tesla’s earnings and margins will land in an increasingly crowded EV race.
Compared to XPeng’s average upside of 29%, Tesla’s flatline forecast shows the difference in sentiment. While XPeng is still seen as a growth play with room to run, Tesla now trades like a company in transition — priced for perfection but wrestling with margin compression, softening China demand, and mounting competition from faster-moving local rivals.
