Applied Materials (AMAT) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results after the market closes on August 13. With the stock closing at $527.48 on Thursday, the options market is pricing in a move of about 11.03%, or $58.20, in either direction after earnings. While traders expect a volatile reaction, some Wall Street analysts believe the stock could move even more if the company issues strong guidance and signals that AI-related chip spending remains healthy.
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How This Compares with Past Earnings Moves
Options-implied moves reflect what traders expect after earnings, while historical price reactions provide a useful benchmark. Over the past four quarters, Applied Materials has averaged about a 6% one-day move after earnings.
That is well below the current implied move of 11.03%, suggesting traders are expecting a much larger reaction this quarter.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects Applied Materials to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of $3.39 per share, up 36% from a year ago, on revenue of about $9.0 billion, up 23% year over year.
What Wall Street Will Watch
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will pay close attention to the company’s outlook.
Recently, Citi placed Applied Materials on a positive 30-day catalyst watch ahead of earnings. The bank believes chipmakers will continue investing in new equipment as AI demand remains strong. Citi also said higher capital spending plans from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) should continue supporting demand.
Investors will also look for updates on demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging, as both have become larger growth areas for Applied Materials.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Joseph Quatrochi expects Applied Materials to guide for about $10.5 billion in October-quarter revenue, above Wall Street’s estimate of roughly $9.3 billion. The firm also expects the company to raise its outlook for semiconductor systems growth in calendar 2026.
Scenario Map
Bull Case: Applied Materials beats revenue and earnings estimates and guides for about $10.5 billion in October-quarter revenue. Strong updates on HBM, advanced packaging, and customer spending could push the stock toward, or even above, the $585.68 implied upper range.
Bear Case: The company issues weaker guidance or signals slower customer spending. That could send the stock toward the $469.28 implied lower range.
Is Applied Materials Stock a Good Buy?
On Wall Street, Applied Materials’ shares continue to enjoy a Strong Buy consensus rating from analysts. This is based on 27 Buys and two Holds assigned over the past three months. In addition, the average AMAT price target of $644.18 implies about 22% upside.
