AI cloud firm CoreWeave (CRWV) is set to release its Q2 2026 earnings today, August 11, after the market closes. CRWV stock traded at around $89 per share during Tuesday’s pre-market session. Interestingly, options set to expire today now imply a 13.21% move, or $11.65 in either direction post-earnings. As of Friday, August 7, options traders priced in a higher 15.5% move.
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Why Is the Market Now Expecting a Smaller Move?
The expected 13.21% swing in CoreWeave shares is smaller than the stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of about 16.75% over the past four quarters.
The change coincides with CoreWeave announcing that it had closed a $2.6 billion loan facility. The New Jersey-based company said it has now raised more than $30 billion in debt and equity year-to-date. In the last earnings call, the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure to between $31 billion and $35 billion.
The new facility may ease short-term investor concerns about funding, although it also adds to the company’s debt load. However, it is important to note that the options-implied move is not an indication of whether the stock will rise or fall. It simply estimates the size of the stock’s reaction after the earnings.
What Can Drive CoreWeave Stock Higher?
CoreWeave’s shares are up about 23% year-to-date compared to a nearly 120% rally in rival Nebius’ (NBIS) shares. This comes as CoreWeave has been taking on more debt.
Options traders still expect the stock to be volatile after earnings. This comes as Wall Street forecasts that CoreWeave will report a loss per share of -$1.22, 103% wider than a year ago. On the brighter side, they expect revenue to reach $2.55 billion, up by 111% from the year-ago quarter.
CoreWeave stock will likely rally if it exceeds revenue estimates. Reporting a better-than-expected loss would also mean progress in the race towards profitability. This could also drive up the stock.
Scenario Map
- Bull Case: CRWV stock might hit the upper range of $100.54 if it surpasses Wall Street’s earnings estimates. Announcing more customer contracts and expanding its $99.4 billion contracted backlog might also ease concerns about expanding debt.
- Bear Case: CoreWeave’s shares might hit the lower bound of $77.24 if its earnings come in worse than expected. In other words, this could happen if profits remain under more strain than forecast and sales fail to match or surpass estimates.
Is CoreWeave Stock a Good Buy?
On Wall Street, analysts continue to rate CoreWeave’s shares as a Moderate Buy. This is based on 13 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell issued by 18 analysts over the past three months.
However, the average CRWV price target of $128.94 suggests about 46% upside in the months ahead (see CRWV stock forecast here).
