Intuitive Machines (LUNR) will report its Q2 2026 earnings tomorrow, August 13. The stock has been volatile in 2026, gaining just 1.54% year-to-date. However, LUNR stock has climbed about 9% in recent days amid optimism around the space sector. After earnings, the stock’s direction depends on backlog conversion, new contract wins, guidance, and upcoming milestones for the lunar mission.
For context, Intuitive Machines develops lunar landers and space infrastructure for NASA, defense, and commercial customers. Wall Street expects Intuitive Machines to narrow its loss to $0.09 per share, versus $0.22 a year ago, while revenue is forecast to jump 330% to $216.3 million.
Key Factors to Watch
1. Turning the $1.1B+ Backlog Into Revenue
Intuitive Machines ended the first quarter with a record backlog of $1.1 billion-plus, helped by the Lanteris acquisition and new NASA CLPS awards. Notably, the company expects 60% to 65% of this backlog to convert into revenue in 2026, with the rest coming in 2027 and beyond.
However, investors will want to see the backlog also translate into better margins. Progress toward positive adjusted EBITDA could provide another boost to LUNR stock.
2. Growth in Defense and Satellite Contracts
Intuitive Machines is expanding beyond lunar missions into defense and satellite infrastructure. Key contracts include 18 IM-300 satellite platforms for L3Harris (LHX) and a spot on the $6.2 billion Andromeda IDIQ contract for the U.S. Space Force. More wins in these areas could reduce the company’s reliance on NASA and civil space spending.
3. Updates on Upcoming Lunar Missions
Investors will also watch for updates on the IM-2, IM-3, and IM-4 missions. Clear launch timelines and progress on payload integration would give investors more confidence in execution. Any delays could weigh on sentiment.
4. Guidance and Cash Position
Intuitive Machines previously guided 2026 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion. Meanwhile, it ended Q1 with $232 million in cash. But high operating and scaling costs have led to negative free cash flow of $64.6 million in Q1. Investors will watch management’s comments on cash burn and spending to gauge the company’s liquidity into 2027.
Post-Earnings Scenario Analysis
Is LUNR Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, LUNR stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on seven Buys and one Hold assigned in the past three months. The average price target for Intuitive Machines is $42.86, implying an upside of 160.06% from the current price. (See LUNR stock forecast).
