Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on August 11. With the stock trading at around $30.32, the options market is pricing in a move of about 15.83% in either direction following the results. That suggests traders are bracing for another volatile earnings reaction.
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For context, Super Micro designs AI servers and data center systems used by cloud providers and enterprise customers.
The Implied Move Breakdown
Notably, the implied move estimates the stock’s expected post-earnings swing. It does not suggest whether shares are more likely to rise or fall.
How This Compares with Past Earnings Moves
Over the past four quarters, Super Micro has averaged a 16.9% one-day move after earnings.
This quarter, the options market is pricing in a 15.83% move, slightly below that historical average. That suggests traders expect another volatile reaction, though not one as large as some of the company’s recent earnings moves.
What Could Drive the Stock Post-Earnings?
Wall Street expects Super Micro to report Q4 revenue of $11.60 billion, up 101.7% from $5.75 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share are projected to increase to $0.92 from $0.41 in the same quarter last year.
Investors will also watch whether the company can continue converting its record $60 billion backlog into revenue. Gross margins will remain another area of focus after Super Micro recently said they could improve to 15% to 17% because of a more favorable mix of AI servers.
The company also announced a new partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Spectro Cloud to launch AMD Instinct Coder, an enterprise AI coding platform built on Super Micro’s systems. Investors may look for updates on how the partnership could support future AI server demand.
Scenario Map
Bull Case: Super Micro beats earnings and revenue estimates while delivering another strong margin outlook and positive commentary on AI server demand. That could push the stock toward, or even above, the $35.12 implied upper range.
Bear Case: Super Micro misses earnings or issues weaker guidance. That could send the stock toward the $25.52 implied lower range.
Is SMCI a Good Stock to Buy?
According to TipRanks, SMCI stock has received a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with five Buys and eleven Holds assigned in the last three months. The average price target for Super Micro Computer is $38.42, suggesting an upside of 26.70% from the current level.
