The odds of a government shutdown occurring this year have jumped to 47%, rising by 13% during the past 24 hours, according to prediction platform Polymarket. The increase comes as Congress is set to return next week with major disagreements between the two major parties. One of the key Democratic demands is to reverse Medicaid cuts included in The One Big Beautiful Bill.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
- Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
Following the August recess, lawmakers will have 20 days to strike a deal before funding runs dry on September 30.
Funding Battle Raises Tension Ahead of Potential Shutdown
Democrats have voiced their opposition to Republican-led rescissions that have clawed back funding for previously approved programs. In addition, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is facing heat from within his own party after he approved the last funding deal, spurring demands for the official to hold his ground.
The last government shutdown was nearly seven years ago on December 22, 2018, lasting for a record 35 days. The shutdown stemmed from a dispute between Congress and President Trump over funding for a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico. Since 1981, there have been 14 partial government shutdowns.
Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute Economic Calendar — filter by impact, country, and more.