The odds of a government shutdown this year have jumped by 5% during the past 24 hours to 56% on prediction platform Polymarket. The rise comes as Democrats threaten to block a bill that would avoid a shutdown on October 1 unless Republicans agree to halt a steep rise in Obamacare health insurance premiums, among other demands. Insurance subsidies from Obamacare are set to expire on January 1, 2026.
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“The ultimate question of whether there’s gonna be a government shutdown at the end of the month is gonna be up to congressional Democrats. And that’s just the way it is,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Funding Bill Standoff Puts Schumer Under Party Scrutiny
Democrats have called on Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to not fold to Republican demands. Back in March, Schumer came under fire after he capitulated to Republicans during a previous government funding scramble.
The current government funding bill needs a minimum of seven Senate Democratic votes in order to pass, although Schumer has warned that the bill “can’t get our votes.” The last government shutdown was nearly seven years ago, beginning on December 22, 2018 and lasting for a record 35 days.
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