Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors are heading into the end of Q3 with delivery numbers just around the corner. Both Q1 and Q2 proved disappointing, as year-over-year declines painted a bleak picture. While Wall Street is bracing for another drop in Q3, the pullback is expected to be less severe.
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In fact, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney now believes consensus estimates are too low and has raised his volume forecasts for both 3Q25 and 4Q25.
Delaney’s revised outlook is grounded in alternative data gathered with the GS Data Works team, including app download trends and global consumer survey insights. Based on this analysis, the analyst now anticipates 455,000 units in Q3 (up from 430,000 previously and above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 439,000) and 450,000 units in Q4 (up from 443,000 earlier and ahead of the 441,000 consensus).
“We attribute the better 2H volumes in part to the recent Model Y L launch, in part based on somewhat better consumer survey data, and in part with IRA EV purchase credits set to expire on 9/30/25,” explained Delaney, who ranks among the top 3% of Wall Street stock experts.
The analyst’s 2026 estimate remains unchanged at 1.865 million units, in line with consensus. Delaney expects growth from new models will be partially offset by factors such as increased competition – particularly in Europe and China – and the expiration of IRA EV purchase credits beginning in 4Q25.
Tesla shares have been on a strong run recently, gaining 22% over the past month – a move Delaney attributes to several factors. These include the recently announced incentive plan for CEO Elon Musk, which could grant him up to an additional 12% stake in Tesla, valued at ~$1 trillion if the company achieves certain market cap and operational milestones. Delaney believes this is being viewed positively by investors, given Tesla’s strong performance following the 2018 plan. Additional drivers include Musk’s purchase of around $1 billion in stock on September 12 and stronger delivery momentum in the third quarter.
While Delaney remains on the sidelines for now with a Neutral rating, given the broader rise in market multiples, the growth rate Tesla can attain over the long term, and some upward revisions to forward EPS estimates, Delaney has raised his price target from $300 to $395. Still, that figure sits 10% below the current share price.
“If Tesla can have outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target, although if competition limits profits (as is happening with the ADAS market in China) or Tesla does not execute well, then there could be downside,” the 5-star analyst further said. (To watch Delaney’s track record, click here)
TSLA stock also gets a Hold rating from the analyst consensus, based on a mix of 12 Holds, 14 Buys, plus 8 Sells. Going by the $341.10 average price target, the shares have now overshot by ~23%. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.