Bitcoin’s recent slide below $102,000 has added weight to a new downgrade from Galaxy Digital (GLXY), which now expects the leading cryptocurrency to reach $120,000 by 2025 instead of $185,000. The firm said changing liquidity patterns and reduced volatility are changing up the way Bitcoin trades in this new market cycle.
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Galaxy Sees Bitcoin Entering a ‘Maturity Era’ as Volatility Fades
Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn said the reduction reflects a broader cooling in Bitcoin’s volatility and a new market phase shaped by passive ETF flows and institutional accumulation.
“Bitcoin has entered a new phase, what we call the ‘maturity era,’ in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate,” Thorn wrote on X. “If bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.”
The firm’s analysts pointed to several near-term headwinds, including an influx of leveraged liquidations and renewed competition from gold, AI, and stablecoins that have drawn investor capital away from Bitcoin.
Whale Selling and Flash Crashes Add Pressure
Data from CryptoQuant shows that over 400,000 BTC flowed into exchanges in October, marking one of the largest whale-driven supply spikes of the year. The sell pressure intensified during the Oct. 10 flash crash, which triggered about $20 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. This was the biggest single-day event in crypto history.
Thorn said the liquidation “materially damaged” Bitcoin’s near-term momentum but stressed that the asset’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, driven by its global adoption curve and scarcity.
Is it a Bear Market or Just a Normal Correction?
The sharp pullback saw Bitcoin fall more than 20% from its all-time high above $126,000, briefly dipping under its 365-day moving average and the $100,000 support zone earlier this week.
Some traders view the decline as a sign of a deeper bear phase. Others see it as part of Bitcoin’s natural cycle of corrections.
“During this cycle, the typical correction signature has been between 20–25%, with a couple of 30% ones,” trader Lourenço VS noted on X. “This current correction is at 21%, totally within the normal parameters.”
To sum up, Galaxy’s trimmed outlook reflects a maturing Bitcoin market where institutional flows shape prices more than retail euphoria. While the “maturity era” may mean smaller rallies, analysts say it also points to greater stability, which is a trade-off many long-term holders appear willing to accept.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $100,750.
