Ford’s (F) first-quarter earnings report is due Monday evening, and everyone is focusing on one number — $6 billion. That’s the midpoint threshold investors are watching for in Ford’s full-year profit guidance, as tariff drama under Trump’s administration casts a long shadow over the auto sector.
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Ford Faces Tariff Heat with U.S.-Centric Advantage
It’s been a rocky start to 2025 for most carmakers, but Ford might be sitting in the best seat in the house. While imported cars face a punishing 25% tariff, Ford only imports about 20% of the vehicles it sells in the U.S. According to Wolfe Research, Ford’s tariff hit could land under $1 billion — far less than the estimated $2–$5 billion in damage facing rivals like GM and Stellantis.
The tariff sting eased slightly last week. President Trump tweaked the policy so tariffs on imported vehicle parts now come with a 15% offset in year one, and 10% in year two. Parts still cross borders several times before assembly, but this reprieve gives Ford much-needed breathing room.
Investors Expect $6 Billion Guidance Marker
Wall Street expects Ford to post a breakeven quarter on $38 billion in sales — down from $2.8 billion in profit and 49 cents EPS a year ago. But what really matters is forward guidance. Ford’s prior outlook called for $7–$8.5 billion in 2025 operating profit. If that dips below $6 billion, expect concern. Above it? A sigh of relief.
According to FactSet, options markets imply a 7% move post-earnings. Ford shares have dropped after three of the last four reports.
Ford’s Sales Discount Push Drives Optimism
On the sales side, Ford extended its employee-pricing-for-all program through July 6. “The campaign has resonated deeply with the public,” said Rob Kaffl, director of U.S. sales, via Automotive News. It’s already delivered double-digit sales growth.
Ford’s 5 p.m. earnings call will answer the billion-dollar question. If they hold the line above $6 billion, they might just shift into a higher gear — tariffs or not.
Is Ford a Good Buy?
Ford’s current Wall Street sentiment leans cautious. According to TipRanks, just 3 out of 16 analysts rate the stock a “Buy,” while the majority (11) say “Hold” and 2 recommend “Sell.” The average 12-month F price target stands at $9.50 — nearly 7% below Ford’s latest close of $10.21 — with estimates ranging from a low of $7 to a high of $14.
But that stance could easily flip after today’s results. Analysts are laser-focused on one key figure: whether Ford’s full-year operating profit forecast stays above $6 billion. A drop below that level could fuel further downgrades and drag the average target even lower. On the other hand, if Ford keeps or raises guidance, especially with a stable margin outlook, it could shift sentiment upward and breathe new life into the stock’s outlook.
Either way, the Street won’t stay on the fence for long. Expect ratings and price targets to react fast once Ford reveals whether it’s steering toward a $6 billion floor — or falling through it.
