Neocloud company Nebius (NBIS) is scheduled to announce its second-quarter earnings on August 12. Ahead of Q2 2026 results, D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a Hold rating on NBIS stock and cut his price target to $175 from $250, saying “Vineland Delays Challenge Narrative.” While Luria agrees that NBIS stock (up 120% year-to-date) has outperformed its neocloud peers and the company has demonstrated solid execution, he thinks that its performance may be at risk due to a delay in the build-out of the key Vineland facility. He doesn’t expect the build-out to be completed this year.
D.A. Davidson Weighs In on NBIS Stock
Luria noted that Nebius has built a strong reputation as a quality neocloud company, backed by its experienced management team and its ability to rapidly scale its contracted GW capacity. He added that Nebius has a better capital structure than peers such as CoreWeave (CRWV) and solid ancillary businesses, mainly a stake in Clickhouse. Luria highlighted that these aspects have supported a 21% valuation premium on backlog for Nebius compared to CoreWeave and a 172% premium to Oracle’s (ORCL) AI cloud.
However, Luria thinks that the company now faces the challenge of increasing its capacity from about 170 MW of connected power at the end of 2025 to 800-1,000 MW of connected power by the end of 2026, while boosting its revenue run rate from $1.9 billion as of March 2026 to $7 billion-$9 billion by December 2026.
After investigating progress at the Vineland facility, Luria doesn’t think that the construction is progressing at a pace that could translate into 328 MW of active power by the end of the year and help meet Nebius’ overall capacity goals. He added that the Vineland site may not be able to contribute to the required revenue rate target for December 2026.
“We fear that the narrative on Nebius could change and the ability to convert contracted power to connected power and then into active power (revenue) may be put into question,” said Luria.
Wall Street’s Expectations from Nebius’ Q2 Earnings
Wall Street expects Nebius to report a wider loss per share of $0.72 for Q2 2026, compared to $0.38 in the prior-year quarter. Revenue is estimated to rise 442% year-over-year to $569.89 million. Strong demand for AI cloud computing is expected to drive Q2 2026 top-line growth.
Is NBIS Stock a Strong Buy?
Heading into Q2 earnings, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Nebius stock based on seven Buys and four Holds. The average NBIS stock price target of $241 indicates 31% upside potential.
