With the Fourth of July coming soon and a legion of attendant cookouts and barbecues to follow, beer is top-of-mind among many this holiday. And that’s pitting Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) against Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) against each other for the honor of top brand. For the first time in quite some time, however, it’s starting to look rocky for Anheuser-Busch to walk out on top, as Anheuser-Busch’s Bud Light is not the best-selling beer in the U.S. anymore.
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In fact, it lost out to Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial. Modelo took home 8.4% of the beer sales market in the four week-period ending June 3, based on a report from Bump Williams Consulting. Meanwhile, Bud Light could only coax a second-place 7.3%. The problem traces back to an ongoing boycott of Bud Light that has been ongoing since around April when new marketing was starting up around transgendered individual Dylan Mulvaney. Bud buyers did not take it lightly and departed en masse.
However, Anheuser-Busch is not taking this development lightly. It’s moved to shut down a lot of the controversial marketing, though it disputes reports that the duo behind it—Daniel Blake and Alissa Heinerscheid—were fired outright. Anheuser-Busch is also apparently pushing a penetration strategy, lowering prices to almost insane degrees. Though the exact amount varies by state, in some places, a 15-pack of Bud Light will sell for less than $15 after rebates apply.
Overall, analysts expect more from BUD stock than they do from STZ stock. Although considered a Strong Buy, STZ’s average price target of $270.29 gives it only 9.26% upside potential. Meanwhile, Anheuser-Busch, rated as a Moderate Buy, offers 22.25% upside potential thanks to its average price target of $68.43.
