ConocoPhillips’ year has been challenging, with COP stock down over 26% the past year, massively underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY). But what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger, and COP’s Q1 earnings clearly show resilience and grit. This quarter was marked by falling oil prices and market uncertainty, and ConocoPhillips showed it knows how to hold course.
The company beat Wall Street’s profit expectations and tightened its cost outlook, all while announcing a major leadership transition. Longtime Chief Financial Officer Bill Bullock, a key figure in the company’s transformative deal-making era, will retire after nearly four decades. His successor, Andy O’Brien, steps in as the company shifts from expansion to execution.
Q1 Results and Operations
The timing couldn’t feel more deliberate. Bullock’s departure comes on the heels of ConocoPhillips’ $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil, a deal that added critical assets across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Anadarko, and even Equatorial Guinea. The integration of these assets has already started to pay off: production in Q1 reached 2.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 487,000 from the same time last year. That increase helped cushion the blow from weaker commodity prices – oil averaged just $53.34 per barrel, down 6% year-over-year.
On the financial front, ConocoPhillips posted adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share, narrowly beating analysts’ expectations of $2.06. The company generated $6.1 billion in cash from operations and distributed $2.5 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Importantly, management lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion, down from $12.9 billion, highlighting continued capital discipline.
In the Main Street Data (MSD) chart below, ConocoPhillips’ quarterly production by segment steadily increases through Q1 2025, with crude oil consistently leading total output growth.
Leadership Change
The leadership handoff to O’Brien, effective June 1, is expected to be smooth. Bullock leaves behind a legacy that includes the acquisition of Concho Resources in 2021, the sale of Australian assets in 2020, and the transformative Marathon deal. His steady financial stewardship helped reposition ConocoPhillips as a leaner, more focused company with a sharper eye on shareholder returns.
CEO Ryan Lance summed it up best: ConocoPhillips is navigating a volatile macro landscape with “confidence in the competitive advantages” of its portfolio and strategy. That confidence is well earned. With a proven asset base, disciplined spending, and an experienced new CFO ready to take the reins, the company looks set to keep executing—regardless of where oil prices go next.
What Is the Price Target for COP Stock?
According to Wall Street analysts, ConocoPhillips has a Strong Buy rating and an average price target for COP stock of $119.82. This implies a 36.61% upside potential.
