Coinbase Global (COIN) is no longer relying solely on crypto trading to drive its business. Even with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) down 45% year-over-year, the company continues to bet on its product line diversification to outlast crypto bear market cycles. Coinbase is the largest U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange. Some of its products include crypto trading, prediction markets, and staking for rewards.
I am bullish on COIN stock because it offers significant crypto-style upside without buying crypto, and its product mix keeps it from relying on a single cryptocurrency.
Coinbase Has Transformed into an ‘Everything Exchange’
Coinbase began as a crypto trading platform, but it has slowly transformed into an “Everything Exchange,” offering products for retail investors, institutional clients, businesses, and blockchain developers. This has allowed it to earn revenue beyond Bitcoin trading, creating multiple revenue streams and providing stability for the underlying business. On the Q2 2026 earnings call, management disclosed that only 12% of revenue now comes from Bitcoin transactions. This shows other products are diversifying revenue.
Coinbase One, a subscription service for Coinbase, has also grown 3x since its release in 2023. Subscribers trade more frequently, use staking, and adopt cross-sold features. This becomes a key growth driver since engagement tends to increase revenue over time.
Beyond retail subscriptions, Coinbase is also positioning itself as the primary infrastructure for the emerging machine economy. As artificial intelligence (AI) agents start using USDC to pay, Coinbase gets more steady, non-trading income from higher digital dollar balances and transaction fees.
As of July 2026, USDC captures 99% of agentic transaction volume, making it the preferred stablecoin. With Google (GOOGL), Shopify (SHOP), and Amazon (AMZN) building ways for agents to complete purchases on x402, demand should continue to drive higher USDC reserves for Coinbase. For context, x402 is a web-based protocol that lets websites, Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), and AI agents request and complete stablecoin payments. x402 enables machine-to-machine transactions such as an AI agent paying for data or software access.
Coinbase Remains Vulnerable to Crypto Volatility
While Coinbase has widened its product mix, it remains vulnerable to crypto volatility. It has a beta of 2.99 and has historically mirrored Bitcoin’s price. So when the crypto market crashes, the stock tends to follow suit. During the 2021–2022 bear market, for instance, COIN fell from its November 9, 2021 closing high of $357.39 to $34.78 on December 28, 2022. That represents a peak-to-trough decline greater than 90%.
Coinbase also has to deal with trading fee volatility. Crypto traders tend to be speculative by nature, so they aren’t always predictable. For instance, with market speculators focused on AI and memory stocks, this likely extracts liquidity out of crypto markets and directly impacts revenue.
Trading fees across all cryptocurrencies, not just Bitcoin, were $599.2 million out of the net revenue of $1.2 billion in Q2 2026. This is roughly half the business, and its 22% year-over-year decline was one of the primary drivers for the quarter’s overall revenue drop.
With the risks acknowledged, I am still bullish on Coinbase because it is building a portfolio of products to help ensure the underlying business can withstand crypto volatility. I don’t think its prediction market, derivative market, or lending capabilities will become market leaders. However, I do believe it will strengthen the core business’s financial position so that it can weather bear markets.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell roughly 75% peak to trough, while Coinbase fell near 90%. In 2026, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its all-time high, and Coinbase is down 35% year-to-date. While this could just be a weaker crash, the product mix seems to be helping the underlying financials to some extent.
Coinbase’s Financial Position Is Unique
Coinbase finds itself in a unique financial position after missing earnings estimates for three consecutive quarters. Because bottom-line profitability swings dramatically with crypto volume, resulting in net losses in early 2026, traditional valuation metrics remain difficult to apply. However, with COIN down significantly year-to-date, much of this near-term earnings weakness appears to already be reflected in the stock’s discounted valuation.
COIN trades at an EV/EBITDA of 30.83x, a meaningful discount to Robinhood (HOOD) at 51.21x. Even on a Price-to-FCF multiple, COIN is at 24.24x compared to HOOD at 63.4x. This reflects its higher volatility and greater concentration in a single cyclical asset class, such as crypto. If its ongoing diversification continues to reduce risk as the future outlook suggests, the stock could start trading closer to Robinhood’s multiple.
Coinbase delivered its 14th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, gained institutional revenue, and expanded into new asset classes. It also repaid $1.3 billion in convertible debt notes in Q2 2026 while continuing to expand its product line, which has been funded by $8.8 billion in cash and liquid investments rather than new borrowing. This shows it’s reducing debt while expanding its product portfolio to create additional revenue streams and hedge against crypto bear markets.
What I’m Watching in Q3 2026
With Q3 2026 earnings approaching, there are some catalysts I’m watching for that support my thesis. First, I want to see growth in subscription and services revenue. On the Q2 2026 earnings call, management said that Coinbase One had surpassed 1 million paid subscribers. Total subscription and services revenue represents 48% of net revenue, so I want to see how this holds in Q3. Management forecasts subscription revenue between $500 million and $580 million in Q3, compared to $555 million in Q2.
Second, I’m also watching for disclosures on actual revenue tied to agentic activity, rather than just reporting volume. This is still early, so I don’t have high expectations, but I still would like to see an update each quarter. Third, I want to see how the revenue-sharing agreement with Circle (CRCL) closes on August 18, 2026. Management stated it will renew on the same terms, but any change would matter, since this 50:50 USDC split drives Coinbase’s interest income from stablecoin reserves.
Lastly, I’ll be watching for the CLARITY Act to pass, which the Senate has already delayed voting on. If the bill passes, Coinbase will benefit significantly from increased institutional interest, but if it doesn’t, it will still be business as usual. The key loss will be the inability to move forward with equity tokenization.
Coinbase on Wall Street
Turning to Wall Street, Coinbase has a Moderate Buy rating, based on 20 Buy ratings, five Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. Coinbase’s average price target of $204.38 represents 39.51% upside potential over the current price of $146.50 for the next 12 months.
The Bottom Line
While crypto brings both upside and downside, Coinbase offers significant crypto exposure. Considering that its product mix is reducing its dependence on a single asset’s price, I remain bullish on it hitting the average price target set on Wall Street over the next 12 months.