Can Novavax’s Q1 Earnings Spark a Comeback for NVAX Stock?

Novavax stock (NVAX) is limping into earnings season. Its upcoming May 8 Q1 results might be the last shot at redemption. Once hailed as a pandemic hero, the biotech firm is now fighting to prove it still belongs in the vaccine race. Shares are down nearly 80% over the past 12 months, and Wall Street is bracing for what could be a pivotal print.

Novavax Q1 Revenue Set to Plunge 70% Year Over Year

Expectations are grim. Analysts forecast a revenue drop to just $92 million, down from a whopping $704 million in Q1 last year — a brutal 70% year-over-year crash. Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to land at a massive $0.42 los. What matters most is how Novavax explains the nosedive in COVID-related income and whether it can rally demand for newer products.

Even a slight beat might stir some optimism — but if results fall short, the market won’t be forgiving.

NVAX Holds Off Buybacks to Conserve Cash

Novavax isn’t in the mood for fireworks. There’s no buyback program, no fat dividend, just a cautious stance. The company’s sitting on around $700 million in cash, and it’s nursing every dollar. For now, its strategy is all about survival and optionality — not rewarding shareholders.

Investors want answers: can that cash carry them through another year? What’s the plan if revenue continues shrinking?

Can NVAX Build a Future Beyond COVID?

That’s the real question. The COVID gold rush is long gone. Now Novavax has to show it can evolve — and fast. If the Q1 earnings call includes solid guidance or regulatory updates, that might buy them more time. If not, the stock risks being left behind.

Is NVAX Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?

According to TipRanks, Novavax carries a Moderate Buy rating based on four analyst reviews in the past three months. Two analysts say Buy, while the other two remain on the fence with Hold ratings. No one’s screaming Sell, but no one’s betting the house either.

The average 12-month NVAX price target sits at $14.25, implying a potential 135% upside from where the stock trades now. The high forecast calls for $19, while the most conservative target rests at $9. That’s a wide spread — and a perfect reflection of just how divided sentiment is right now.

This makes Q1 earnings more than just a quarterly check-in. With expectations already battered, even a glimmer of upside could reignite some bullish momentum. But if Novavax underdelivers, the floor might fall further.

See more NVAX analyst ratings