Barrick Gold (GOLD) stock heads into earnings with the weight of slipping margins, a government gold seizure, and shifting investor appetite for safe-haven assets. The miner will report Q1 results on May 7, and analysts expect EPS of $0.28 on $3.15 billion in revenue. That’s a jump from last year’s $0.19 and $2.74 billion, but expectations alone won’t steady the ship.
Barrick’s story this quarter isn’t just about output. It’s about control. Political roadblocks in Mali, rising production costs, and pressure on margins have turned what should’ve been a straight gold (CM:XAUUSD) rush into a slog through the mud.
GOLD’s EPS Could Jump But Cost Pressures Linger
Barrick’s bottom line is expected to rise year-over-year, but not without friction. The company warned investors about a climb in total cash costs per ounce to between $1,050 and $1,130, and all-in sustaining costs could reach as high as $1,560.
That’s a painful stretch from last year’s range and one that cuts into the potential windfall from stronger gold prices. If those cost estimates hold, analysts say the margin squeeze could cap upside from even a solid earnings beat.
Barrick’s Mali Operations Face Major Setback
In one of the most dramatic headlines of the quarter, Barrick’s operations in Mali were rocked by a government move to seize three metric tons of gold over tax disputes. That stash, valued around $245 million, led the miner to suspend operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto complex.
The fallout is serious. According to Reuters, analysts estimate the Mali halt could knock 11% off Barrick’s 2025 earnings.
Barrick Keeps Returning Cash to Shareholders
Despite operational headaches, Barrick is keeping investors in mind. The company recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share and is pushing ahead with a $1 billion share repurchase program.
That might help soften the blow if margins come in weak or Mali remains unresolved, but it’s not enough on its own to spark new excitement in the stock.
Is Barrick Gold a Good Buy?
According to TipRanks, Barrick Gold carries a Moderate Buy consensus — though it leans toward Hold. Out of 13 analysts, three say Buy, and 10 say Hold, . The average GOLD price target sits at $24.71, offering 32.6% upside from current levels.
If margins continue to thin and geopolitical headaches linger, analysts may sharpen their knives. But for now, Barrick still has its head above water.
