Bitcoin has surged past $125,000 in 2025, gaining more than 32% year to date. The move has been powered by inflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed demand from corporations adding BTC to their balance sheets.
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By contrast, most of the top memecoins have been left behind. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) has fallen 20% this year, while Shiba Inu and Pepe have plunged 41% and 48%, respectively. Solana-based Bonk is down 33%, and the TRUMP token, launched earlier in the year, has crashed more than 80% from its highs.
The widening gap shows how institutional capital is favoring the perceived safety of Bitcoin over the social hype that drives memecoins.
Retail Hype Cools as New Memecoins Fade
The number of new memecoins launched on Solana (SOL-USD) has fallen dramatically. According to data from Dune Analytics, Solana-based launchpads were minting nearly 400 new meme tokens a day at the height of the mania in mid-2025. By late August, that number dropped below 100, signaling a 75% decline in retail participation.
Trading activity also tells the same story. In late September, Solana memecoins handled around $865 million in volume, compared with $1.54 billion on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The shift suggests retail traders are moving toward new forms of speculation and away from meme tokens.
Can DOGE and TRUMP Recover in Q4?
Despite the slump, analysts say some top memecoins could still stage short-term rebounds before year-end. Dogecoin is forming what appears to be an ascending triangle on its multi-day chart, which could signal a bullish breakout if it moves above $0.28. A confirmed breakout could push DOGE toward $0.41, about 60% higher than current levels.
Pepe is showing a similar technical setup, with potential to climb as much as 120% if momentum holds through November. The TRUMP token is also testing resistance around the $8.30 level. Clearing that zone could open the way toward $10 by year-end, but failure could send the token back to $7.30.
Institutional Momentum Keeps Bitcoin Ahead
While memecoins look for a comeback, Bitcoin continues to dominate the broader market. ETF inflows have provided a steady base of demand, and macro uncertainty has driven more investors toward BTC as a hedge.
So far, 2025 has shown that institutional narratives can eclipse socially driven tokens. Unless retail enthusiasm returns in Q4, Bitcoin may keep outpacing the meme sector into the new year.
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