Bitcoin may not have followed gold to new all-time highs this month, but analysts argue the connection is only delayed. Market watchers say Bitcoin typically lags three to four months behind gold’s (CM:XAUUSD) moves, which could set up a breakout through October and November. If the pattern holds, one analyst says a run toward $300,000 is “becoming increasingly likely.”
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Bitcoin Follows Gold’s Lead
Gold broke to new all-time highs months before Bitcoin, and some say the world’s biggest cryptocurrency is now set to repeat the move.
“Bitcoin tends to follow gold, 3-4 months down the line,” analyst Milk Road Macro said, pointing to similar wedge patterns in both charts. Gold’s breakout delivered a 10% gain, and if the correlation holds, Bitcoin could rally 5–10 times that amount. This would imply a move of 50–100% for BTC, putting targets between $160,000 and $220,000.
The timing, according to Milk Road Macro, could fall in October or November, as Bitcoin builds for a “last-minute spike” out of its consolidation pattern.
Analysts See Room for Extreme Upside
The boldest target came from crypto investor Zynx, who argued that BTC must climb above $150,000 to equal its all-time high in gold terms. Historically, Bitcoin has more than doubled that level.
“I would say that $300K is becoming increasingly likely,” Zynx wrote, framing BTC’s next move as one of the most asymmetric opportunities in markets today.
Dan Tapiero, CEO of 50TFunds, added fuel to the bullish case. He noted that the BTC-to-gold ratio is forming a “massive cup and handle” pattern, a setup that could send Bitcoin into new price discovery if it breaks the neckline. Tapiero’s model suggests a rally of more than 400% in the BTC/XAU pair.
BTC Must Hold $112,000 for Next Move
Despite the optimism, Bitcoin still faces hurdles in the short term. The token reclaimed $112,000 this week, and traders say that holding this level is critical to unlocking further gains.
“$BTC broke out of the down trend line overnight after squeezing all the late shorts,” analyst AlphaBTC said, pointing to $114,000 as the next target. If BTC can hold above $112,000 and break through $114,000, it would confirm strength heading into October.
On exchange order books, more than $612 million in liquidity sits between $112,350 and $114,000, according to CoinGlass. Clearing that zone would likely spark a bigger rally, with $140,000 as the next logical target.
To sum up, Bitcoin’s bull market has diverged from both gold and U.S. equities, which have already hit all-time highs. For analysts, that lag is not a sign of weakness but of pent-up potential. If history rhymes, BTC could deliver outsized gains once the breakout confirms.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $112,107.76.
