Electric vehicle sales doubled from 2020 to 2021, reaching 6.6 million, according to the International Energy Agency. In fact, almost 10% of global auto sales were EVs last year — quadruple the 2019 market share. Multiple drivers, including government subsidies and incentives and public pledges to eliminate cars with internal combustion engines, are driving growth in the EV market. In this piece, I compared two electric vehicle stocks, TSLA and RIVN, to see which is better.
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has become the old guard of the EV market, although many investors have hopped on newcomer Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), suggesting it could be the next Tesla. However, it might be a good idea to hold off on Rivian, at least for now.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla shares have plunged almost 70% year-to-date for multiple reasons, including concerns that CEO Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter has been a significant distraction. However, those concerns appear to be only temporary, and Tesla’s price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is depressed to levels not seen since its earliest days of profitability. For these reasons, a bullish view looks appropriate — with the caveat that the bull thesis could take a while to play out.
Tesla’s trailing P/S now sits around 5.0 times, a level it hadn’t seen since early 2020 when the automaker finally became profitable.
One thing that has kept Tesla flying high during its unprofitable years has been its dominance in the EV market. Unfortunately, S&P Global Mobility found that its share of the EV market is dropping rapidly, falling from 71% in last year’s third quarter to 65% this year. However, investors shouldn’t worry about Tesla’s falling market share because rapidly increasing adoption is growing the size of the EV market.
Production issues have also weighed on Tesla shares this year, just as they have on other automakers. However, amid concerns about profitability at some of the automaker’s factories, it has generated $75 billion in revenue and $11.2 billion in net income for the last 12 months. Tesla has also beaten earnings estimates for seven quarters in a row.
It’s also important to realize that with Tesla, investors seem to always overdo everything. The stock was overpriced for many years due to the excessive exuberance that gripped the market. Now that everyone is bearish on the market in general, Tesla shares have exaggerated the downside, potentially presenting a buying opportunity. Investors should be warned that there could be more downside from here, but as with any stock, it’s virtually impossible to call the bottom.
What is the Price Target for TSLA Stock?
Tesla has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 19 Buys, 10 Holds, and two Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. At $276.26, the average price target for Tesla implies upside potential of 142%.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
Rivian is a startup, so its lack of profitability is excusable. In fact, bulls would argue that the company is now in the position Tesla was in during its earliest years. However, Tesla was overvalued then as Rivian is now, particularly in terms of its P/S multiple. Thus, a bearish view appears appropriate due to the high risk of investing during the startup phase.
Rivian Automotive’s trailing P/S ratio stands at about 16.7 times. While the multiple has come down dramatically since the IPO, it remains overvalued. Investors are clearly holding Rivian because they think it’s the next Tesla, and it may be.
However, it’s simply too early to know whether the company will survive. Plenty of EV makers have come and gone, including the recently reinvented Fisker Automotive (NYSE:FSR).
What is the Price Target for RIVN Stock?
Rivian has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buys, four Holds, and two Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. At $42.13, the average price target for Rivian Automotive implies upside potential of 137.35%.
Conclusion: Bullish on TSLA, Bearish on RIVN
While all automakers are in for challenging times during this potentially recessionary period, investors should invest with a long-term view in mind. Tesla is established, but Rivian’s future hangs in the balance. Insight into the Inflation Reduction Act also shows Tesla’s long-term staying power versus Rivian.
Musk said on Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call that he expects the company to fully meet the bill’s requirements for customers to receive tax credits on their EVs. Those requirements are quite strict, and few vehicles can meet them. The requirements include price limits and restrictions on where the parts come from.
On the other hand, Rivian management was less than thrilled with the bill due to their inability to meet the requirements for the tax incentives.
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