Despite displays of dwindling car sales in its quarterly readouts this year, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares have ultimately shaken off concerns about a lack of demand; the stock has moved into the green, showing year-to-date gains of 8%, with investors hoping the company’s AI/autonomous endeavors will provide the necessary uplift.
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Having wondered earlier in the year whether the stock was actually ripe for a downgrade, considering the shares’ trajectory, Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas now thinks keeping his Buy rating intact was a good move. But where to now with the stock sitting at ~$435?
Well, time for it to push higher, says the TSLA bull. Gianarikas maintained a Buy rating on the shares and raised his price target from $333 to $490, suggesting a gain of 13% is coming in the months ahead. (To watch Gianarikas’ track record, click here)
Not that Gianarikas thinks the Tesla story currently lacks in negatives. Its future hinges on whether robotaxi and humanoids can deliver. At a projected ~$1.00 per mile, Tesla’s U.S. robotaxi market is about 25 billion miles – too small to dramatically change the company’s earnings. Costs need to fall below ~$0.75 per mile to compete with personal car ownership or transit, and potentially ~$0.25 with concepts like Robovan, though that remains only a prototype. Expansion abroad could help, but would bring regulatory and competitive hurdles. On the technology side, reliance on cameras and neural nets is still unproven, with risks such as hallucinations highlighting the uncertainty.
Then there’s the comp package: it sets an operational target of $400 billion in EBITDA over 10 years, compared with ~$15 billion TTM (trailing twelve months) as of 2Q25. Musk “is who he is,” and shouldn’t be underestimated, but for Tesla to meet the target, a lot has to go right. In Gianarikas’ view, the company will need to undergo a “period of creative destruction” – accepting slower growth in its vehicle business (only 12 million more deliveries targeted over the next decade) to chase scale in robotaxis and robotics.
However, the comp package could also be looked at as a positive. It locks Elon Musk into Tesla for the long haul, with aggressive performance targets that could make him a trillionaire if achieved. For shareholders, those targets offer substantial potential upside, and the upcoming vote even includes a path to invest in xAI.
Meanwhile, Gianarikas has also raised his delivery estimates. Pulling data from ~30 countries, the analyst sees a “positive break in trend” after several quarters of “weakening momentum.” New EV models, as promised by the company, should also help “global sales momentum” and could soften any US slowdown once tax credits expire post-Q3.
Finally, there’s another plus in that Gianarikas expects an “improvement in momentum” for the energy storage business. Global demand for power and storage is rising, especially from hyperscaler data centers that want power sources that aren’t completely dependent on the grid, turning instead to “behind-the-meter” or distributed generation setups that deliver electricity directly to the site while still maintaining a link to the main utility grid. As such, Gianarikas thinks energy storage will play a “material role in behind-the-meter solutions.”
Turning now to the rest of the Street, where Gianarikas’ overall bullish stance gets the backing of 13 other analysts yet with an additional 12 Holds and 8 Sells, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Hold. Most also think the shares have overshot; at $345.28, the average target factors in a one-year slide of 20.5%. (See Tesla stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.