RKLB or ASTS: Which Space Stock Is a Better Buy as Earnings Loom?

Tomorrow (Monday, August 10) will be a big day for space stocks. Both Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) will report Q2 earnings once the market action comes to a halt.

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Both stocks have followed similar trajectories over the past year, seeing huge gains before experiencing significant pullbacks in July. However, sentiment appears to be shifting in these names’ favor again, with both rebounding strongly over the past week.

But with earnings on deck tomorrow, which space stock is better positioned to keep the momentum intact?

RKLB shares currently sit 45% below May’s highs, but despite the pullback, the shares are still up by 84% over the past year. Investors will be hoping for a repeat of RKLB’s record-breaking first quarter, when the company generated more than $200.3 million in revenue, representing a 63.5% year-over-year increase, while its order backlog climbed above $2.2 billion.

Meanwhile, the stock’s gains over the past week were helped by a $397 million Space Force contract announced on Tuesday covering the construction, launch, and operation of threat-tracking “Flatellites” using its Neutron rocket. The award came shortly after the company received a contract worth as much as $266 million for 12 suborbital missions, with the possibility of six additional launches. Rocket Lab has also secured three more Electron missions for Japanese customer iQPS, starting in late 2027, bringing the customer’s total bookings to 18.

Neutron is likely to be one of the biggest talking points. Investors will particularly want to know whether the company continues to expect the rocket’s first launch to take place toward the end of 2026.

As for the results, the Street expects Q2 revenue to come in at around $230.95 million (up 60% year-over-year), while the consensus EPS forecast stands at a loss of $0.06.

Analyst sentiment remains strongly positive. The stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on 13 Buys and 4 Holds. The average price target clocks in at $110.53, suggesting the stock will gain 33% in the year ahead. (See RKLB stock forecast)

ASTS has also been recovering, although the stock remains 46% below its May peak. The company missed expectations on both the top-and bottom-lines in Q1 but is expected to show some big growth. Analysts are forecasting quarterly revenue of $34.4 million, amounting to a 133% increase from the previous quarter. At the same time, the adjusted loss is expected to improve substantially, narrowing to $0.29 per share from $0.66.

The company also has a string of recent operational developments to point to heading into the results. On Wednesday, AST SpaceMobile successfully launched BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 from Cape Canaveral. The satellites feature the largest communications arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit and can deliver speeds approaching 200 Mbps, almost twice the maximum speeds offered by the company’s first-generation satellites.

Work is already progressing on the next batch, with BlueBirds 14 through 16 being prepared for the upcoming mission and satellite production extending through BlueBird 42.

ASTS has simultaneously been expanding its commercial rollout in Europe. Integration testing has now been extended across eight countries in partnership with Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Deutsche Telekom, and Vodafone Ukraine. The company’s carrier-focused approach is designed to allow telecom operators to use satellite connectivity to expand their coverage without surrendering their direct relationships with subscribers.

That strategy has attracted agreements with almost 60 mobile operators representing more than three billion subscribers. ASTS also has more than $1.2 billion in contracted commercial revenue commitments.

The Street remains bullish on ASTS’s prospects too, but not to the same extent as RKLB. The stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 4 Buys, 5 Holds and 1 Sell. Going by the $88.87 average price target, shares are anticipated to add 23.5% over the coming months. (See ASTS stock forecast)